Longbow Partners’ Supplemental Elections Update

We’ve been asked to provide some additional information and insight for a broader view of the primary elections beyond those that we had identified as the most likely to influence or shape the tone and tenor of next state legislative session. Consequently, we are pleased to provide you with our Supplemental Primary Elections Report, as some have requested.

MORE ON TURNOUT & RUNOFFS

 As previously reported, 4.24 million people voted in the primary. However, even with such a large turnout, there were more than a handful that were won with less than 120 votes.  There will be 3 incumbents in runoffs, 9 open race runoffs, which will be held May 24, 2016 – a short 82 days away, so fundraising calls will begin again in earnest.

What follows is some additional insight as well as an expanded overview of Tuesday’s elections, including all races on the ballot.

TEXAS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PRIMARY

Today, the Texas House of Representatives consists of 98 Republicans and 52 Democrats. The primary election resulted in 4 incumbents being defeated in their primary races and 3 others headed into run-off races, May 24.  7 of the 16 open seat races are also headed into a run-off.  At this time, it is difficult to predict how the upcoming general election races will shake out, but few would argue that Republican’s will retain their partisan majority in the House.  Most political observers would agree that there are only 10 to 14 competitive, general election races across the state.  See below the individual election returns for the Texas House of Representatives.

INCUMENT LOSSES – 4

Pundits would most likely score the primary election vote for those incumbents that lost their reelection as 2 lost by the Tea Party (Spitzer & White) identified candidates, 1 moderate Republican (Farney) and 1 conservative Republican (Riddle) challenged by the Tea Party as follows:

District 4

Spitzer, Stuart (I) (R – Kaufman), 48% Defeated Incumbent

Gooden, Lance 52%

District 20

Farney, Marsha (I) (R – Georgetown), 46% Defeated Incumbent

Wilson, Terry 54%

District 55

White, Molly (I) (R – Belton), 49.7% Defeated Incumbent

Shine Hugh 50.3%

District 150

Riddle, Debbie (I), (R – Tomball), 40% Defeated Incumbent

Swanson, Valoree 53%

Zolli, Al 3%

Hearn-Haynes, Theresa 6%

INCUMBENTS IN RUNOFFS

Generally speaking, should an incumbent be forced into a run-off, it often means that more than half of the voters did not vote for them, which historically spells trouble in a run-off. It appears that the Republican incumbents in runoffs are the consequence of challenges from multiple Tea Party candidates, whereas Democrat Ron Reynolds is appealing misdemeanor convictions for barratry which, if the conviction is upheld this year, could expose him to do a year of jail time.  He has also had his law license suspended pending the appeal, which probably weighed heavily in his race.

District 27

Ron Reynolds (I) 49% (Run-off)

Angelique Bartholomew 24%

Steve Brown 19

Chris Henderson 8%

District 73

Miller, Doug (I) 43% (Run-off)

Biederman, Kyle 40%

Byrd, John Chris 17%

District 128

Smith, Wayne (I) 44% (Run-off)

Cain, Briscoe 48%

McDaniel, Melody 8%

 

OPEN RUNOFF SEATS

SD 1 (R OPEN SEAT) Hughes (47%) and Simpson (21%) who edged out Brown by 13 votes;

SD 24 (R OPEN SEAT) King (27%) and Buckingham (24%);

HD 5 (R OPEN SEAT) Hefner (45%) and Misenheimer (27%);

HD 18 (R OPEN SEAT) Strahan (28%) and Bailes (26%);

HD 33 (R OPEN SEAT) Holland (33%) or Liechty (47%);

HD 54 (R OPEN SEAT) Cosper (41%) and Ruiz (36%);

HD 64 (R OPEN SEAT) Stucky (42%) and King (30%);

HD 120 (D OPEN SEAT) Gervin-Hawkins (26%) and Salas (23%);

HD 139 (D OPEN SEAT) Willis (32%) and Johnson (28%)

 

HOUSE INCUMBENT RACE ELECTION RESULTS:

 District 1

VanDeaver, Gary (I) 62%

Lavender, George 38%

District 2

Flynn, Dan (I) 51%

Slaton, Bryan 49%

District 4

Spitzer, Stuart (I) 48% Defeated Incumbent

Gooden, Lance 52%

District 8

Cook, Byron (I) 50.38%

McNutt, Thomas 49.61%

District 11

Clardy, Travis (I) 86%

Sevilla, Tony 14%

District 12

Kacal, Kyle (I) 70%

Stanford, Michael 19%

Delasandro, Timothy 11%

District 14

Raney, John (I) 69%

Fields, Jess 31%

District 17

Cyrier, John (I) 65%

Golemon, Brent 35%

District 20

Farney, Marsha (I) 46% Defeated Incumbent

Wilson, Terry 54%

District 27

Ron Reynolds (I) 49% (Run-off)

Angelique Bartholomew 24%

Steve Brown 19

Chris Henderson 8%

District 36

Munoz, Sergio (I) 60%

Padron, Abraham 40%

District 37

Oliveira, Rene (I) 68%

DeLeon, Don 32%

District 47

Workman, Paul (I) 61%

Wiley, Jay 39%

District 55

White, Molly (I) 49.7% Defeated Incumbent

Shine Hugh 50.3%

District 58

Burns, DeWayne (I) 54%

Eby, Philip 46%

District 59

Sheffield, JD (I) 62%

Graves, Brent 38%

District 65

Simmons, Ron (I) 83%

Kissling, Ben 17%

District 73

Miller, Doug (I) 43% (Run-off)

Byrd, John Chris 17%

Biederman, Kyle 40%

District 75

Gonzalez, Mary (I) 58%

Quintanilla, Chente 42%

District 81

Landgraf, Brooks (I) 68%

Crawford, Joshua 32%

District 84

Frullo, John (I) 55.2%

Landtroop, Jim 44.8%

District 89

Laubenberg, Jodie (I) 71%

Lytle, Dalton 29%

District 92

Stickland, Jonathan (I) 58%

Fisher, Scott 41%

District 94

Tinderholt, Tony (I) 58%

Piel, Andrew 41%

District 96

Zedler, Bill (I) 72%

Nelson, Wesley 28%

District 99

Geren, Charlie (I) 58%

French, Bo 42%

District 106

Fallon, Pat (I) 83%

Trubenbach, Trent 17%

District 112

Button, Angie Chen (I) 77%

DeHart, Chris 23%

District 113

Burkett, Cindy (I) 56%

Boos, Jonathan 44%

District 114

Villalba, Jason (I) 53%

Morenoff, Daniel 47%

District 115

Rinaldi, Matt (I) 53%

Ratliff, Bennett 47%

District 121

Straus, Joe (I) 60%

Judson, Jeff 29%

Bean, Shiela 11%

District 124

Minjarez, Ina (I) 71%

Contreras, Sergio 29%

District 127

Huberty, Dan (I) 78%

Bosworth, Mitchell 22%

District 128

Smith, Wayne (I) 44% (Run-off)

Cain, Briscoe 48%

McDaniel, Melody 8%

District 131

Allen, Alma (I) 90%

Shike, John 10%

District 134

Davis, Sarah (I) 60%

Palmer, David 40%

District 137

Wu, Gene (I) 65%

Pollard, Edward 35%

District 149

Vo, Hubert (I) 65%

Smith, Demetria 35%

District 150

Riddle, Debbie (I) 40% Defeated Incumbent

Swanson, Valoree 53%

Zolli, Al 3%

Hearn-Haynes, Theresa 6%

OPEN SEATS – 16

District 5 – Republican Primary (Run-off)

Cole Hefner 46%

Jay Misenheimer 27%

Randy Davis 13%

Philip Hayes 8%

Holly Hayes 6%

District 7 – Republican Primary (Simpson)

Jay Dean 58%

David Watts 42%

District 18 – Republican Primary (Otto) (Run-off)

Keith Strahan 28%

Ernest Bailes 26%

Van Brookshire 6%

Wesley Hinch 21%

James Morrison 10%

J Turner 9%

District 33 – Republican Primary (Scott Turner) (Run-off)

John Keating 38%

Lorne Liechty 29%

Justin Holland 33%

District 49 – Democratic Primary (Naishtat)

Gina Hinojosa 57%

Heather Way 19%

Huey Fischer 14%

Blake Rocap 3%

Matthew Shrum 2%

Kenton Johnson 2%

Aspen Dunaway 3%

District 54 – Republican Primary (Aycock) (Run-off)

Scott Cosper 43%

Austin Ruiz 40%

Larry Smith 17%

District 60 – Republican Primary (Keffer)

Kevin Downing 46%

Mike Lang 54%

District 64 – Republican Primary (Crownover) (Run-off)

Read King 30%

Lynn Stucky 42%

Rick Hagen 28%

District 71 – Republican Primary (Susan King)

Stan Lambert 52%

Isaac Castro 22%

Chris Carnohan 12%

Stacey Scaief 7%

Brian Scalf 7%

District 77 – Democratic Primary (Marquez)

Adolfo Lopez 31%

Lina Ortega 69%

District 116 – Democratic Primary (Trey Martines Fischer)

Diana Arevalo 53%

Martin Golando 29%

Ruby Resendez 18%

District 118 – Democratic and Republican Primaries (Farias)

Gabe Farias DEM 59%

Tomas Uresti DEM 41%

John Luhan REP 73%

Robert Casias REP 27%

District 120 – Democratic Primary (McClendon) (Run-off)

Latronda Darnell 12%

Barbara Hawkins 26%

Art Hall 12%

Lou Miller 8%

Byron Miller 19%

Mario Salas 23%

District 126 – Republican Primary (Harless)

Kevin Roberts is only GOP Candidate running.

District 130 – Republican Primary (Fletcher)

Tom Oliverson 70%

Kay Smith 30%

District 139 – Democratic Primary (Sylvester Turner) (Run-off)

Randy Bates 25%

Jerry Ford 14%

Jarvis Johnson 29%

Kimberly Willis 32%

 

INCUMBENTS WHO VOTED AGAINST THE SPEAKER:

Of the 19 members who voted against Speaker Straus, 1 is retiring from the House, 2 ran for Texas Senate, 9 had no primary opponents, 2 were defeated by primary opponents, and 5 won their primary races, with the election winners bolded.

District 4

Spitzer, Stuart (I) 48%

Gooden, Lance 52%

District 5

Hughes, Brian (Running for SD 1)

District 6

Schaefer, Matt (I) (No Primary Opponent)

District 7

Simpson, David (Running for SD 1)

District 15

Keough, Mark (I) (No Primary Opponent)

District 33

Turner, Scott (Retiring)

District 55

White, Molly (I) 46%

Shine, Hugh 54%

District 66

Shaheen, Matt (I) (No Primary Opponent)

District 67

Leach, Jeff (I) (No Primary Opponent)

District 70

Sanford, Scott (I) (No Primary Opponent)

District 83

Burrows, Dustin (I) (No Primary Opponent)

District 91

Klick, Stephanie (I) (No Primary Opponent)

District 92

Stickland, Jonathan (I) 58%

Fisher, Scott 42%

District 93

Krause, Matt (I) (No Primary Opponent)

District 94

Tinderholt, Tony (I) 58%

Piel, Andrew 42%

District 96 –

Zedler, Bill (I) 72%

Nelson, Wesley 28%

District 105

Anderson, Rodney (I) (No Primary Opponent)

District 106

Fallon, Pat (I) 83%

Trubenbach, Trent 17%

District 115

Rinaldi, Matt (I) 47%

Ratliff, Bennett 53%

 

TEXAS SENATE PRIMARY ELECTIONS

The partisan make-up of the Texas Senate is currently at 20 Republicans and 11 Democrats, which is not expected to change in number, but possibly move a little more to the right than the current make up. Another thing to note about the Senate is that the open seat races consist of candidates that are from the same party of the vacating senator (SD 24 – Fraser and SD 1 – Eltife), in contrast to the House, where the 2 Senators with primary opposition (SD 19 – Uresti v H. Madla and SD 26 Menendez v Martinez-Fischer) were Democrats.  See below the individual election returns for the Texas Senate.

SENATE OPEN SEATS – 2

District 1 (East Texas – Eltife) Republican Seat, Runoff

Hughes, Bryan 48%

Simpson, Davis 21%

Brown, James “Red” 21%

Lee, Mike 10%

* As it stands right now, the runoff for SD1 will be between Hughes and Simpson (bolded above). Just 13 votes separated Simpson from third-place finisher Red Brown after all the ballots were counted Tuesday night. However, there are 400 or so provisional votes, some of which will count. There may also be ballots from military personnel or other voters stationed overseas, which must be counted if they were postmarked on or before Election Day and received by the county no later than the fifth day after the election (March 6, 2016), creating the very real possibility of a recount that could alter who Hughes actually faces in the runoff.

District 24 (Central Texas – Fraser) Republican Seat, Runoff

Buckingham, Dawn 25% (Run-Off)

King, Susan 27%

Cobb, John 20%

Downton, Ryan 5%

Mayes, Brent 16%

Williams, Reed 7%

 CONTESTED INCUMBENTS – 3

District 19 (San Antonio) Democratic Seat

Uresti, Carlos (I) 75%

Madla, Helen 25%

District 26 (San Antonio) Democratic Seat

Menendez, Jose (I) 59%

Martinez-Fischer, Trey 41%

District 27 (Brownsville) Democratic Seat

Lucio Jr., Eddie (I) 84%

Haro III, O. Rodriguez 16%

 

TEXAS STATEWIDE PRIMARY

Supreme Court:

Three Justices faced primary opponents and each won their primary races. Justice Debra Lehrmann had the toughest race against Michael Massengale, who was endorsed by Texans for Lawsuit Reform.

Supreme Court 3:

Lehrmann, Debra (I) 52%%

Massengale, Michael 48%%

Supreme Court 5:

Green, Paul (I) 52%

Green, Rick 48%

Supreme Court 9:

Guzman, Eva (I) 59%

Pool, Joe 41%

 

RAILROAD COMMISSION

Commissioner David Porter announced his retirement several days before the candidate filing deadline in December. There were a total of seven Republicans and three Democrats running in the Primary.

GOP (Run-off)

Gates, Gary 28%

Christian, Wayne 20%

Christian, Lance 12%

Greytok, John 7%

Hale, Ron 15%

Jeffrey, Doug 9%

Martinez, Weston 10%

DEM (Run-off)

Cody Garrett 35%

Grady Yarbrough 40%

Lon Burnam 25%

 

TEXAS CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARY

The Texas Congressional delegation is currently made up of 25 Republicans and 11 Democrats. There could potentially be a gain for the Democrats in CD 23 (Congressman Will Hurd). This seat historically has gone Democratic during presidential election years. Congressmen Gohmert and Weber each voted against Speaker Ryan and still won their primary races.  In an election cycle in which the biggest issue was being against the establishment, every incumbent won their primary races, with winners listed in bold

S. Representative District 1 – GOP

Anthony Culler 4%

Louie Gohmert – Incumbent 82%

Simon Winston 14%

S. Representative District 3 – GOP

David Cornette 6%

Sam Johnson – Incumbent 75%

John Calvin Slavens 11%

Keith L. Thurgood 8%

S. Representative District 4 – GOP

Lou Gigliotti 23%

Ray Hall 11%

John Ratcliffe – Incumbent 67%

S. Representative District 6 – GOP

Collin Baker 9%

Joe Barton – Incumbent 69%

Steven Fowler 22%

S. Representative District 7 – GOP

John Culberson – Incumbent 57%

Maria Espinoza 18%

James Lloyd 25%

S. Representative District 8 – GOP

Kevin Brady – Incumbent 53%

Andre Dean 4%

Craig McMichael 5%

Steve Toth 37%

S. Representative District 14 – GOP

Keith Casey 16%

Randy Weber – Incumbent 84%

S. Representative District 16 – DEM

Ben Mendoza 14%

Beto O’Rourke – Incumbent 86%

S. Representative District 17 – GOP

Bill Flores – Incumbent 73%

Ralph Patterson 18%

Kaleb Sims 9%

S. Representative District 21 – GOP

Matt McCall 29%

John Murphy 5%

Todd Phelps 6%

Lamar Smith – Incumbent 60%

S. Representative District 23 – GOP

Will Hurd – Incumbent 82%

William “Hart” Peterson 18%

S. Representative District 26 – GOP

Micah Beebe 6%

Michael C. Burgess – I 79%

Joel A. Krause 14%

S. Representative District 27 – GOP

Gregg Deeb 44%

Blake Farenthold – I 56%

S. Representative District 28 – DEM

Henry Cuellar – I 90%

William Hayward 10%

S. Representative District 29 – DEM

Gene Green (I) 58%

Adrian Garcia 38%

Dominique Garcia 4%

S. Representative District 30 – DEM

Barbara Mallory Caraway 24%

Eddie Bernice Johnson – I 69%

Brandon Vance 7%

S. Representative District 31 – GOP

John Carter – Incumbent 71%

Mike Sweeney 29%

S. Representative District 32 – GOP

Paul Brown 12%

Russ Ramsland 24%

Cherie Myint Roughneen 3%

Pete Sessions – Incumbent 61%

These are the results in the 2 Open Seats in the Texas Congressional Delegation with the announced retirements of Congressman Ruben Hinojosa and Congressman Randy Neugebauer.

S. Representative District 15 – DEM (Run-off)

Vicente Gonzalez 42%

Juan Palacios, Jr 19%

Dolly Elizondo 17%

Joel Quintanilla 12%

Ruben Ramirez 6%

Rance Sweeten 4%

S. Representative District 19 – GOP (Run-off)

Jody Arrington 27%

Glen Robertson 27%

Jason Corley 3%

Greg Garrett 8%

John Key 2%

Donald May 9%

Don Parrish 2%

Michael Bob Starr 20%

DeRenda Warren 2%